Un responsable de la cryptographie a déclaré que le très attendu ETF Bitcoin aux États-Unis serait probablement retardé jusqu’à ce que le jalon soit atteint.

Désolé, pas d’ETF Bitcoin

Les fonds négociés en bourse (ETF) Bitcoin et cryptocurrency figurent depuis des années sur la liste de souhaits des acteurs du marché de la cryptographie, en particulier parmi les gestionnaires de détail et professionnels aux États-Unis.

Ces produits sont des offres de cryptographie réglementées et conservées qui permettraient aux négociants et aux investisseurs de parier sur la croissance (ou la baisse) des cryptocurrences en utilisant une plateforme bien réglementée, légale et réputée qui minimise le risque de contrepartie (le scénario d’une bourse qui ne paierait pas ou ne reconnaîtrait pas sa position de négociation).

Les investisseurs ont longtemps attendu qu’un tel fonds fasse son apparition aux États-Unis, et ils devront peut-être attendre encore plus si l’on en croit un gestionnaire de fonds.

Cathie Wood, la PDG de la division crypto-focalisée d’Ark Investment, a déclaré lors d’une récente apparition à l’événement ETH Trends Big Ideas que le marché crypto avait encore un long chemin à parcourir avant de pouvoir être considéré comme formidable sur les marchés américains.

Selon M. Wood, le plafond du marché de la cryptographie doit atteindre au moins 2 000 milliards de dollars pour que Bitcoin Machine ou les ETF de cryptographie soient pris en compte ou dépassés par les régulateurs américains. Il s’agit d’une augmentation de près de 200 % par rapport aux 700 milliards de dollars de capitalisation boursière que Bitcoin a réussi à atteindre au début de ce mois, son plus haut niveau à ce jour.

Elle a déclaré:

„L’afflux de la demande doit être satisfait, donc il faudra qu’il dépasse largement le billion de dollars – 2 billions de dollars, je pense, avant que la [U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission] se sente à l’aise avec un ETF Bitcoin.

Plusieurs entreprises américaines ont essayé de lancer leurs ETF Bitcoin réglementés dans le pays, mais n’ont rencontré jusqu’à présent qu’un refus. Au moins trois de ces ETF ont été rejetés en un seul jour en 2018, tandis qu’un autre s’est même retiré de la course aux ETF en 2019 (il a déclaré qu’il essaierait lorsque les lois seraient plus favorables).

Biden est bon pour la crypto

Dans la suite de sa présentation, M. Wood a ajouté que Gary Gensler, le chef de file de la Commission américaine des opérations de bourse sous l’administration Biden, avait une opinion favorable du marché de la cryptographie et qu’il était susceptible d’introduire des politiques de soutien pour en revigorer l’utilisation.

Elle a qualifié Gensler de „pro-Bitcoin“ lors de la réunion, en plus de mentionner que les nouveaux dirigeants de la SEC étaient relativement plus favorables à la cryptographie que l’administration Trump précédente.

Entre-temps, sa présentation contenait également quelques prévisions sur les prix de Bitcoin, en particulier au moment où les fonds spéculatifs, les entreprises technologiques et les family offices font leur entrée sur le marché florissant de la cryptographie.

M. Wood a déclaré que si chaque société du S&P 500 devait investir 1 % de ses actifs de trésorerie dans Bitcoin, le prix de l’actif augmenterait de 40 000 dollars. Et pour encore plus d’hopium, elle a dit que si cette répartition atteignait 2,5 % et 6,5 %, cela pourrait avoir un impact sur le prix de Bitcoin „de 200 000 à 500 000 dollars“.

Several reputable analysts and traders have turned neutral to slightly bearish on Bitcoin in the short term as BTC struggles to regain USD 33,000.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant and on-chain analyst, says Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a neutral to bearish short-term trend at the moment.

There are two main indicators that have been useful in detecting trend changes in the current bullish cycle.

3 reasons why the Bitcoin price dropped below USD 30,000 in a surprise overnight correction
First, every time the Coinbase premium appeared, meaning that BTC trades higher on Coinbase than on Binance, for example, BTC experienced upward momentum. Second, Bitcoin’s momentum strengthened when it saw large outflows from Coinbase.

In recent days, however, neither of these two indicators have shown Profit Secret any staying power, as the metric fell into negative territory on 24 January.
BTC: Coinbase premium index (blue). Source: CryptoQuant
When will sentiment in the Bitcoin market improve again?
Bitcoin is most likely to find renewed bullish momentum if the premium on Coinbase consistently appears alongside large outflows from the exchange.

The combination of these two indicators would suggest that high net worth individuals are accumulating Bitcoin once again. Ki explained:

„I will maintain my bearish bias until there is a significant premium from Coinbase and outflows from the exchange. $BTC needs spot inflows of US dollars from institutional investors to start the next bull run.“
The popular narrative around Bitcoin’s recent rally is that institutional investors and high net worth individuals are collecting BTC on every price drop.

In addition to the two Coinbase-related indicators, stablecoin deposits are another important metric that could signal that a new rally is in the making.

Believe, don’t see: institutions still predict Bitcoin price of USD 100,000
Ki noted that stablecoin deposits on exchanges are often a powerful on-chain signal for a rally because it shows the inflow of marginalised capital into the cryptocurrency exchange market.

Deposits of stablecoins. Source: CryptoQuant
For example, when stablecoin deposits spiked on 22 January, BTC proceeded to rally by around 6% over the next 24 hours. Ki said:

„This indicator is one of the most powerful on-chain signals with a pretty good hit rate. You can predict an instant short-term rise regardless of the overall market trend. It is the amount of stablecoin deposits on all exchanges, which means that investors try to send stablecoins to exchanges to buy cryptocurrencies. For example, if this value reaches 80, we can assume that 80 people are trying to deposit on an exchange in a single block, in 15 seconds“.
How low can BTC go?
For the foreseeable future, if Bitcoin continues to move sideways, some traders expect BTC to fall as low as USD 27,000.

The interesting relationship between BBVA and Coinbase: What is it really all about?
A pseudonymous trader known as „CJ“ shared a potential scenario in which BTC could mark a floor near USD 26,000 or USD 27,000.
Bitcoin price chart with key lines. Source: TradingView.com and FT
However, even in a worst-case scenario, analysts generally do not see the Bitcoin price revisiting the area below USD 20,000. The trader wrote:

„This channel could be precisely what prevents a retest of USD 20,000. According to this chart, the sweet spot for a fall is between USD 23,000 and USD 27,000.“
Although short-term on-chain indicators point to a slightly bearish outlook, they do not point to the likelihood of a deeper correction.

‚Bullish year ahead‘: Indicator suggests bitcoin poised for another rally in 2021
Bitcoin falling back to around USD 20,000, the previous all-time high, would mean a 35% drop from current levels. Such an event seems unlikely, but traders should be on the lookout for a possible black swan event, such as a regulatory crackdown or a high-profile lawsuit against a major industry player.

Fintech Simple (a digital native bank) closes its virtual doors in the United States

Fintech Simple (a digital native bank) closes its virtual doors in the United States. It is a firm that had been acquired by BBVA in 2014. This was reported in an article in the Invertia supplement of El Español.

As explained in the publication, the decision is part of a strategic initiative. „Users don’t have to do anything. Their deposits are guaranteed and will be automatically transferred to a BBVA USA account,“ they clarified.

In the article they also detailed: „The move is part of the bank’s exit from the United States. Along those lines, current customers will become BBVA USA customers once the process of transferring funds and data is completed. And, in turn, they will be integrated into PNC, which took over the Spanish bank’s assets in November for $11.6 billion“.

„In general, customers have been waiting for a long time without perceiving any improvement in the product cycles. They initially adopted this application because of the absence of commissions, as well as its simplicity. At the time of purchase the application had more than 100,000 customers. It was one of the competitors that planted the so-called neo-banks, where they competed with Nubank, N26, Revolut or Monzo,“ they added.

The actress Sophia Thomalla has come under fire for an advertising partnership with the blockchain project G999 of the former Karatbars chairman Josip Heit.

The German actress Sophia Thomalla has come under fire for an advertising appearance for the controversial blockchain project G999 of the former Karatbars chairman Josip Heit, according to a report in the Handelsblatt on January 3.

Thomalla advertises G999

The actress and Instagram influencer poses in an elaborately produced commercial for the G999 blockchain project by Josip Heits from Hamburg-based Gold Standard Banking Cooperation AG (GSB). Its credibility is under criticism because of Heit’s earlier involvement with the startup Karatbars as “Chairman of the Board”, with its allegedly gold-backed virtual currency Bitcoin Pro Coin investors lost millions .

G999 is described on the project website as a “peer-to-peer electronic cash system”, which aims to become a “solid global currency with fast payments, micro-fees, a new generation of communication and high transaction capacity”. According to the Handelsblatt, it is “unclear” what exactly is behind the project.

Heit describes his company GSB as „an international conglomerate based in the port of Hamburg.“ GSB only moved from Düsseldorf to Hamburg two years ago. Until 2018 the company was called GCC Gazella Corporate Capital GmbH, whose most important asset is said to have been a quarry in Croatia for a long time.

According to Handelsblatt, there is still a legal dispute between Karatbars company founders Harald Seiz and Josip Heit, and Seiz is planning a direct competition to G999 with the very similar-sounding blockchain project V999. That said, Seiz had come first with the start of G999.

According to Handelsblatt, Heit is said to have had intensive contact with the Romanian Alex Bodi, who has since been arrested for alleged mafia activities and forced prostitution in his home country. When asked, he threatened the Handelsblatt with lawsuits in the USA.

Meanwhile, Sophia Thomalla is clueless. She does not know this side of her new business partner, she said on request. Her lawyer wrote that she would not comment on matters „of which she has no knowledge and in which she was not nor is involved.“

Celebrities as draft horses for scams

Crypto fraudsters repeatedly employ celebrities as the draft horses to give their project the appearance of seriousness. Advertising with boxing star Floyd Mayweather and musician DJ Khaled for the ICO of the fraudulent crypto investment company Centra Tech caused a sensation in 2017 .

Bitcoin está en camino de su racha ganadora mensual más larga en más de un año después de tocar un récord por encima de los $ 28,000 durante el fin de semana.

La criptomoneda más grande alcanzó un máximo histórico de $ 28,365 el domingo antes de recortar parte del avance, según una combinación de precios compilada por Bloomberg. La racha de retornos descomunales durante octubre, noviembre y diciembre hasta ahora es el tramo más largo desde mediados de 2019.

„Mi sensación es que estamos muy cerca de un tope, aunque podríamos llegar a los $ 30,000″, dijo Vijay Ayyar, jefe de desarrollo comercial del intercambio de cifrado Luno en Singapur. “Definitivamente deberíamos ver un retroceso, pero la magnitud probablemente sea menor. Es posible que solo veamos caídas del 10 al 15 por ciento „.

Ha sido un año difícil en todos los sentidos. Pero para Bitcoin, 2020 ha sido un momento maravilloso

La criptomoneda casi se cuadruplicó, superando los $ 20,000 por primera vez mientras marcaba un récord tras otro. Los recalcitrantes lo aplaudieron como una cobertura contra la inflación en una era de generosidad sin precedentes de los bancos centrales. Los veteranos de Wall Street, desde Paul Tudor Jones hasta Stanley Druckenmiller, lo bendijeron como un activo alternativo, contribuyendo al repunte. Y empresas como MicroStrategy y Square trasladaron las reservas de efectivo al cripto en busca de mejores rendimientos que los que ofrecen las tasas de interés cercanas a cero.

Si bien ninguna de esas razones para comprar Bitcoin concuerda con sus orígenes como alternativa a las monedas fiduciarias, sí apuntan a una creciente aceptación de las criptomonedas como una clase de activos propia. Y eso tiene a la comunidad fanática dando otra vuelta de victoria en su búsqueda de legitimidad. „Lo que está sucediendo ahora, y está sucediendo más rápido de lo que nadie podría imaginar, es que Bitcoin se está moviendo de un activo esotérico marginal a la corriente principal“, dijo Matt Hougan, director de inversiones de Bitwise Asset Management.

„Si se está generalizando, hay tanto dinero al margen que tendrá que entrar y establecer una posición que me deja muy optimista para 2021“

Pero dado que Bitcoin está captando una mayor atención, también podría atraer un mayor escrutinio por parte de los reguladores, dice Guy Hirsch, director gerente para EE. UU. En la plataforma de comercio en línea eToro. “A pesar de este ascenso meteórico, hay algunas nubes de tormenta en el horizonte”, dijo, incluidas las consecuencias de varias acciones de último minuto de la administración saliente de Trump, entre otras.

Predecir adónde irá es un ejercicio complicado. Muchos dejaron la moneda por muerta después de que su rally de 2017 resultó en un colapso el año siguiente, un período de tiempo que a veces se conoce como el „invierno criptográfico“.

Pero ha aumentado más del 300% en 2020 y muchos inversores dicen que podría seguir ganando el próximo año. ¿Qué más hay en el radar? Para Meltem Demirors, director de estrategia del administrador de activos digitales CoinShares, existen algunas preocupaciones sobre lo que la administración entrante de Joe Biden podría significar para el espacio criptográfico.

En el futuro, dicen muchos estrategas e inversores, la industria podría ver un mayor escrutinio y una regulación más estricta con Biden en la Casa Blanca.

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts fear the impact quantum computers could have.

Some digital goods could fall victim to quantum computers.

In the future, quantum machines could be made available to the masses, or at least criminals.

Chinese researchers have created a quantum computer that is ten billion times faster than Google’s prototype. We explain why this is a new milestone and what it means for the crypto sphere.

What are quantum computers?

A quantum computer is an extremely powerful computing machine that can process information about 100 trillion times faster than a traditional computer. This type of power is very useful for processing large amounts of data, modeling circuits and many other possibilities that will only be discovered over time.

However, this technology comes with a dark side. Researchers believe quantum computers can completely dismantle computer security as we know it. With such data processing power, no code will take more than an instant to analyze. This means that quantum computers can read terabytes of data in just one second and therefore crack the cryptographic code.

For example, bank transactions and messages are encrypted using the Bitcoin Lifestyle algorithm. To decipher RSA, it would take a normal computer hundreds, if not thousands of years. A quantum computer can crack RSA cryptography in minutes.

IBM Q Europe Ambassador Mark Mattingley-Scott explained the progress of quantum computer research:

We are now at the stage where we have quantum computers and where we can use them. We are able to program them. We are looking for a way to make them more industrializable and more stable, as well as robust technologies. We learn to write algorithms for them. We work on different types of quantum computing.

Mattingley-Scott is sure humanity is ready for machines like this. He also thinks that we are prepared to take the consequences.

How do quantum computers work?

A quantum computer, unlike a traditional computer, does not work with bits or bites (a unit of information in a dual computing system) but with quantum bits, or qubits. This technology speeds up computer processing hundreds of times.

The hardware is also more complex than that of its predecessors. There are more parts than a traditional computer, and the device must be constantly cooled.

What quantum computers are on the market?

Prototypes of quantum computers appeared at the end of the 20th century. In the fall of 2019, Google presented its most recent developments and demonstrated the enormous possibilities of quantum computing.

A NASA experiment showed that it took three minutes and 20 seconds for the machine to perform the same calculations that would have taken 10,000 years for the most powerful traditional supercomputer of the time.

Prisen på Bitcoin nådde en helt ny høyde på $ 21 569 – men har kryptoholdere som kom ut tidlig angrer?

Bitcoin-prisen passerte $ 21 000 for første gang i historien 16. desember, ikke lenge etter at kryptoaktiva brøt den psykologiske terskelen på $ 20 000.

BTC / USD ukentlig diagram.

Det nylige rallyet til $ 21,569 på Coinbase klokka 23:15 UTC, betyr at institusjonell investor MicroStrategy har sett sine andeler dobbelt i pris siden de kunngjorde at de hadde vedtatt Bitcoin (BTC) som en reserveaktiv i september, da prisen var under $ 11.000.

Imidlertid har ikke alle høyprofilerte investorer gjort seg som en banditt. Barstool Sports-grunnlegger Dave Portnoy sa at han solgte sine Bitcoin-beholdninger i august og potensielt gikk glipp av mer enn hundre grand i fortjeneste. Portnoy rapporterte å ha kjøpt minst $ 200 000 i BTC 13. august – da prisen var under $ 12 000. Den samme mengden Bitcoin ville være verdt mer enn $ 360 000 i dag, med prisen steg 80%.

Alex Mashinsky, administrerende direktør i Celsius Network, forutsa at prisen sannsynligvis vil falle snart, og presenterer en kjøpsmulighet.

„Sett deg inn, fordi vi skal besøke $ 20- $ 22K-nivået minst et halvt dusin ganger før vi bryter gjennom til $ 30K-serien senere i 2021,“ sa han.

„Jeg tror vi også vil teste $ 14-16K-nivåene på nytt enten over en helg med lite volum eller med dårlige nyheter som treffer gaten. Det vil trolig være siste gang de fleste av oss vil ha en sjanse til å kjøpe bitcoin under $ 20K-nivåer igjen. ”

Med den bullish aktiviteten i dag har investorer som kortsluttet kryptoaktiva sett posisjonene sine avviklet. I følge data fra kryptohandelsplattformen Bybt har mer enn 630 millioner dollar i Bitcoin blitt avviklet det siste døgnet. Glassnode rapporterte at det var nesten 95 millioner dollar i avvikling av Bitcoin-futures på større kryptobørs Binance bare en time tidligere i dag:

Prisen på Bitcoin er 21 329 dollar på tidspunktet for publiseringen, og har steget 9,7% det siste døgnet.

Samme pris, forskjellig Bitcoin: Hvordan grunnleggende endret seg fra 2017

Flere bruker Bitcoin nå, men transaksjonsgebyrene er mye lavere enn under bull-run 2017.

Ettersom Bitcoin (BTC) fortsetter å slå nye heltid over $ 20.000, tegner nettverkets grunnleggende et annet bilde sammenlignet med forrige bull-run i 2017.

For tre år siden, akkurat denne dagen, nådde Bitcoin sin første store all-time high på $ 20.000, og registrerte opptil 2000% gevinst for det året. I løpet av 2020 likte Bitcoin nok et prisopphold som presset prisen til nye historiske høyder og krysset 23 500 dollar den 17. desember for første gang noensinne.

Når man sammenligner okseløpene i 2017 og 2020, kan man tro at desember har en spesiell betydning for Bitcoin. Men bortsett fra dette tilfeldigheten, er samlingene veldig forskjellige når det gjelder institusjonell etterspørsel og adopsjonsnivå. Fra et fundamentalt perspektiv er årets Bitcoin bull run ikke noe som 2017 – spesielt når det gjelder transaksjonsgebyrer.

Transaksjonsavgiftene falt mer enn 90% i 2020 bull run

Bitcoins 2020 bull run er betydelig sunnere når det gjelder kostnader per transaksjon. Gruvearbeidernes inntekt per transaksjon – en beregning som også inkluderer blokkbelønninger – utgjorde $ 130 i desember 2017 og ca $ 60 den 14. desember 2020, ifølge data fra Blockchain.com.

Rå transaksjonsgebyrer er betydelig billigere. I følge overvåkingsressurser som BitInfoCharts, er den gjennomsnittlige BTC-transaksjonsavgiften nede på $ 5 i desember 2020 fra $ 50 i 2017.

Kontrasten er enda tydeligere når man ser på totale BTC-transaksjonsgebyrer, som er nede fra rundt 1500 BTC 21. desember 2017 til bare 70 BTC 14. desember 2020, ifølge Blockchain.com.